Can Scotland at last end the All Blacks hoodoo?

Match action
New Zealand implemented three adjustments to the squad that beat the Irish team

International Rugby Series: Scotland v New Zealand

Venue: Murrayfield Stadium, Edinburgh Date: this weekend Kick-off: 3:10 PM GMT

Things were simpler then. Match number four of the Scottish and New Zealand teams. A heaving Murrayfield, a 0-0 draw, January 1964. Euphoria at full-time. Fans flooding the field to symbolize the historic accomplishment by Scotland.

Having beaten Ireland, Wales and England, New Zealand had at last been stopped in a Test.

The man from Pathe News almost blew a gasket. "A game that no-one who saw it will ever forget," he announced excitedly with considerable hope. "A match in which Scotland saved the honour of Britain."

Leaving the stadium that evening, home supporters would have had hope for the future. Four attempts at beating New Zealand and zero victories, but clear signs that success might be imminent.

A few seasons after, New Zealand beat the Scots. Half a decade later, history repeated itself. Three years further on, same story. Another five-year gap and, yes, the pattern continued.

Recent History

Two decades of matches later. Twenty All Black wins. Across New Zealand and beyond, from the Southern to Northern Hemisphere - the landscapes have changed but results remain consistent.

During his tenure, Scotland's coach has broken winless streaks in major European venues, but this challenge is different. This is 32 games across 120 years. One of sport's greatest hoodoos.

Team News

In recent years the comprehensive defeats have narrowed to eight points, five points and eight points in 2014, 2017 and 2022, but the All Blacks always find a way.

Through their brilliance, physical dominance, game management, they secure victory.

We're now at the point of the week where positive expectations that supporters maintained for Scottish success is likely diminishing. Hope is colliding with history.

Key Absences

Recent updates revealed that Fagerson was unavailable. For Scotland's hopes it was a significant setback.

Fagerson hasn't played since April, but he's exceptional and had he been declared fit then the long gap without a game would not have been too worrying.

In an era when most props are replaced early in matches, Fagerson's engine keeps running. No tighthead played nearly as many minutes in the European championship.

Squad Depth

They're without Huw Jones but Rory Hutchinson is flying form with Northampton. Fagerson's replacement presents concerns. D'Arcy Rae is an admirable tighthead, his international experience consists of limited game time.

Once Rae's shift ends, there's Elliot Millar-Mills to come on. While competent, there's little to suggest that he can match New Zealand's standard.

Strategic Decisions

The coach has made unexpected selections, some logical, some curious. Kyle Steyn's game-management intelligence replaces Duhan van der Merwe's more one-dimensional power.

The flanker selection is unconventional, with Darge among substitutes. Onyeama-Christie's omission is notable.

Past Encounters

Rugby action
Darcy Graham was a try-scorer in the narrow loss to New Zealand in the previous encounter

Against Ireland, the All Blacks secured the first leg of what they hope will be an undefeated tour. They started slowly, despite numerical advantage, but their final surge secured victory.

That and Ireland's defensive shape, their attack, their line-out and their scrum collapsing.

By the Numbers

For all that their blasts at the end, the final quarter is not where New Zealand typically dominates. In all of their Tests recently, they've scored 87 tries in the first half and fewer after halftime.

Strong opening performances, 48 in the second, 26 in the third and 34 in the fourth. They start aggressively.

What Scotland Needs

During their last meeting, they struck twice in the opening seven minutes. Leading 14-0, the game looked done. Scotland fought back impressively to dominate temporarily.

The lesson here is that, metaphorically, Scotland must put the boot on the throat from the start - maintaining intensity.

Over the last decade, successful opponents have required a points average in the upper twenties. Scotland have got into the 20s only twice in their past 13 games against the All Blacks.

Final Analysis

Perfect execution is required for Scotland. Everything. If they start butchering chances early on then forget it. Disciplinary issues? Repeated infringements? Set-piece struggles? The game is lost.

With perfect execution? Explosive start. A raucous crowd. Bedlam. Ruthlessness. Russell being Russell. Darcy Graham's brilliance.

Fantasy rugby, maybe. We haven't seen an 80 minutes from Scotland that would be sufficient against New Zealand. If the capability exists, now is the moment; a century is sufficient.

John Bender
John Bender

A passionate chef and food writer dedicated to sharing easy-to-follow recipes and culinary insights for home cooks.

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